Το περιεχόμενο του άρθρου δεν είναι διαθέσιμο στη γλώσσα που έχετε επιλέξει και ως εκ τούτου το εμφανίζουμε στην αυθεντική του εκδοχή. Μπορείτε να χρησιμοποιήσετε την υπηρεσία Google Translate για να το μεταφράσετε.
COVID-19, Politics Could Derail Recovery of Cotton Market
ANKENY, Iowa (DTN) -- Cotton prices and demand are "remarkably" strong despite the ongoing worldwide COVID-19 pandemic and financial crisis, economic and policy experts said during the recent Beltwide Cotton Conferences.
March cotton futures surpassed 82 cents per pound on Jan. 13, up more than 30 cents in the past 10 months. The latest USDA projections indicate U.S. cotton use and exports will eclipse production during the 2020-21 marketing year for the first time in three years, which is a good sign for prices.
But is the upward cotton price trend and demand sustainable?
That depends on several factors, according to Jody Campiche, vice president of economics and policy analysis with the National Cotton Council of America, which hosted the virtual event, and Stephen MacDonald, an economist and fibers analyst with the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board. Factors include how fast the pandemic subsides as COVID-19 vaccines are administered, when people can get back to their normal routines and spending habits, and future government intervention, among other things.
"Current cotton prices are not generally reflective of the global balance sheet and large stocks outside of China," said Campiche, who provided the U.S. cotton market outlook.
However, she said current prices are supported by the following:
-- Lower production and stocks in the U.S.
-- Low supply chain inventories.
-- Increased purchases from China.
-- Speculative money flow.
-- A weaker U.S dollar.
-- Higher grain and oilseeds prices.
-- Post-COVID demand.
"I think we're seeing a lot of influences on prices that are outside of typical supply and demand fundamentals," Campiche said.
It's possible but unclear if cotton growers will enjoy profitable prices, which they were as of mid-January, for the year. Texas A&M University reports the cash price farmers receive is generally 4 to 8 cents less than the futures market. The university estimates the break-even price for farmers is generally 60 to 70 cents per pound, depending on individual costs and yield.
