WASDE Cotton
8 Οκτωβρίου 2010

WASDE Cotton

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COTTON: This month’s U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates are virtually unchanged from last month. Production is raised marginally, as increases for the Delta and Southwest are nearly offset by reductions for the Southeast. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. Ending stocks remain at 2.7 million bales, the equivalent of 14 percent of total use. The forecast range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is forecast at 67 to 79 cents per pound, compared with 63 to 77 cents last month. At the midpoint of the range, the forecast is 10 cents above the final 2009/10 marketing-year average price of 62.9 cents per pound.

Slight adjustments to the world cotton estimates for 2010/11 result in slightly lower ending stocks compared with last month. Higher production in Argentina, Australia, and Turkey is more than offset by a 1.0-million-bale reduction for China, which is based mainly on lower area as reported by Chinese agencies. China’s beginning stocks also are reduced as the current severe shortage suggests that consumption in 2009/10 was higher than previously forecast. Estimates of total world consumption and trade are raised slightly. World ending stocks are now forecast at 44.7 million bales, down about 2.0 million bales from the beginning level. Compared to last season, China’s stocks are forecast to fall by 3.5 million bales, while stocks are expected to rise in Brazil, India, and Australia.

World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton  1/
Million 480-lb. Bales
  Output Total

Supply		 Trade 2/ Total

Use		 Ending

Stocks
 
World 2008/09   107.14 167.75 30.07 109.94 60.42
2009/10 (Est.)    101.36 161.79 35.54 117.74 46.69
2010/11 (Proj.)  Sep 116.95 163.93 37.96 120.53 45.44
2010/11 (Proj.)  Oct 116.68 163.37 38.08 120.77 44.66
United States 2008/09   12.82 22.87 13.26 3.59 6.34
2009/10 (Est.)    12.19 18.53 12.04 3.46 2.95
2010/11 (Proj.)  Sep 18.84 21.84 15.5 3.6 2.7
2010/11 (Proj.)  Oct 18.87 21.82 15.5 3.6 2.7
Foreign  3/ 2008/09   94.32 144.88 16.81 106.36 54.08
2009/10 (Est.)    89.18 143.26 23.5 114.28 43.75
2010/11 (Proj.)  Sep 98.11 142.09 22.46 116.93 42.74
2010/11 (Proj.)  Oct 97.81 141.55 22.58 117.17 41.96
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1.  2/ Based on export estimate.  3/  Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances.

WASDE - 487 - 17
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use  1/
  2008/09 2009/10 Est. 2010/011 Proj. 2010/011 Proj.
    Sep Oct
Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler
Area Million Acres
    Planted 9.47 9.15 11.04 11.04
    Harvested 7.57 7.53 10.77 10.77
Filler Pounds
Yield per Harvested Acre 813 777 839 841
  Million 480   Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 2/ 10.05 6.34 3 2.95
Production 12.82 12.19 18.84 18.87
Imports 0 0 0 0
    Supply, Total 22.87 18.53 21.84 21.82
Domestic Use 3.59 3.46 3.6 3.6
Exports, Total 13.26 12.04 15.5 15.5
    Use, Total 16.85 15.5 19.1 19.1
Unaccounted 3/ -0.32 0.08 0.04 0.02
Ending Stocks 6.34 2.95 2.7 2.7
Avg. Farm Price 4/ 47.8 62.9 63.0 - 77.0 67.0 - 79.0
Total        
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1.  Totals may not add due to rounding.  2/ Based on Bureau of Census data.  3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data.  4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 

WASDE - 487 - 26
World Cotton Supply and Use  1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
2008/09 Beginning

Stocks		 Production Imports Domestic

Use		 Exports Loss

  /2  		 Ending

Stocks
 
World 60.61 107.14 30.03 109.94 30.07 -2.65 60.42
United States 10.05 12.82 3/ 3.59 13.26 -0.32 6.34
Total Foreign 50.56 94.32 30.03 106.36 16.81 -2.34 54.08
   Major Exporters  4/ 17.73 42.32 1.54 26.83 13.88 -0.19 21.08
       Central Asia  5/ 2.34 7.08 0.01 1.6 4.45 0 3.37
       Afr. Fr. Zone  6/ 0.67 2.41 3/ 0.19 2.15 0 0.75
       S. Hemis  7/ 8.3 8.68 0.31 5.52 4.6 -0.2 7.38
           Australia 0.6 1.5 3/ 0.05 1.2 -0.08 0.93
           Brazil 6.25 5.48 0.05 4.2 2.74 -0.15 4.99
       India 5.63 22.6 0.8 17.75 2.36 0 8.92
   Major Importers  8/ 30.99 49.21 26.03 75.24 1.86 -2.15 31.28
       Mexico 0.93 0.57 1.32 1.85 0.18 0.03 0.76
       China 20.5 36.7 7 44 0.08 -2.25 22.37
       EU-27  9/ 0.67 1.23 0.96 1.14 1.01 0.05 0.65
       Turkey 1.95 1.93 2.92 5.1 0.14 -0.09 1.65
       Pakistan 4.47 8.7 1.92 11.25 0.36 0.03 3.46
       Indonesia 0.39 0.03 2 2 0.02 0.05 0.35
       Thailand 0.32 3/ 1.6 1.6 0 0.03 0.29
       Bangladesh 0.62 0.04 3.8 3.75 0 0.01 0.7
       Vietnam 0.25 0.01 1.25 1.25 0 0 0.26
               
2009/10 Beginning

Stocks		 Production Imports Domestic

Use		 Exports Loss

  /2  		 Ending

Stocks
 
World 60.42 101.36 36.19 117.74 35.54 -2 46.69
United States 6.34 12.19 3/ 3.46 12.04 0.08 2.95
Total Foreign 54.08 89.18 36.19 114.28 23.5 -2.08 43.75
   Major Exporters  4/ 21.08 41.82 1.54 28.75 20.11 -0.19 15.77
       Central Asia  5/ 3.37 5.99 3/ 1.69 5.82 0 1.86
       Afr. Fr. Zone  6/ 0.75 2.22 3/ 0.18 2.27 0 0.52
       S. Hemis  7/ 7.38 8.98 0.39 5.7 4.95 -0.2 6.3
           Australia 0.93 1.78 3/ 0.04 2.12 -0.08 0.62
           Brazil 4.99 5.35 0.15 4.4 1.99 -0.15 4.25
       India 8.92 23.2 0.6 19.5 6.55 0 6.67
   Major Importers  8/ 31.28 44.88 32 81.36 2.23 -1.9 26.46
       Mexico 0.76 0.42 1.39 1.9 0.08 0.03 0.58
       China 22.37 32 10.9 49 0.02 -2 18.25
       EU-27  9/ 0.65 1.01 0.91 1 1.05 0.05 0.47
       Turkey 1.65 1.75 4.39 5.8 0.15 -0.08 1.93
       Pakistan 3.46 9.6 1.4 11 0.7 0.03 2.73
       Indonesia 0.35 0.03 2.1 2.05 0.02 0.05 0.36
       Thailand 0.29 3/ 1.81 1.78 0.01 0.03 0.3
       Bangladesh 0.7 0.05 4 4 0 0.01 0.74
       Vietnam 0.26 0.02 1.7 1.6 0 0 0.38
               
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors.       2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks.  3/ Less than 5,000 bales.  4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed.  5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.  6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.  7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
World Cotton Supply and Use  1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
2010/11 Beginning

Stocks		 Production Imports Domestic

Use		 Exports Loss

  /2  		 Ending

Stocks
 
World Sep 46.98 116.95 37.96 120.53 37.96 -2.04 45.44
Oct 46.69 116.68 38.08 120.77 38.08 -2.06 44.66
United States Sep 3 18.84 3/ 3.6 15.5 0.04 2.7
Oct 2.95 18.87 3/ 3.6 15.5 0.02 2.7
Total Foreign Sep 43.98 98.11 37.96 116.93 22.46 -2.08 42.74
Oct 43.75 97.81 38.08 117.17 22.58 -2.08 41.96
filler filler filler filler filler filler filler
   Major Exporters  4/ Sep 15.59 49.17 2.12 30.03 19.12 -0.19 17.9
Oct 15.77 49.82 2.12 30.24 19.29 -0.19 18.35
       Central Asia  5/ Sep 1.84 6.97 0.01 1.73 5.66 0 1.43
Oct 1.86 6.97 0.01 1.74 5.65 0 1.45
       Afr. Fr. Zone  6/ Sep 0.51 2.76 3/ 0.18 2.57 0 0.52
Oct 0.52 2.76 3/ 0.18 2.57 0 0.52
       S. Hemis  7/ Sep 6.14 11.84 1.11 5.95 5.45 -0.2 7.9
Oct 6.3 12.49 1.11 5.95 5.83 -0.2 8.32
           Australia Sep 0.46 3 3/ 0.04 2.5 -0.08 1
Oct 0.62 3.3 3/ 0.04 2.75 -0.08 1.21
           Brazil Sep 4.25 7 0.9 4.6 2.2 -0.15 5.5
Oct 4.25 7 0.9 4.6 2.2 -0.15 5.5
       India Sep 6.67 26 0.5 20.5 5 0 7.67
Oct 6.67 26 0.5 20.7 4.8 0 7.67
filler filler filler filler filler filler filler
   Major Importers  8/ Sep 26.86 46.19 33.17 82.69 2.11 -1.9 23.31
Oct 26.46 45.24 33.3 82.75 2.06 -1.9 22.09
       Mexico Sep 0.56 0.61 1.4 1.9 0.15 0.03 0.5
Oct 0.58 0.61 1.4 1.9 0.15 0.03 0.51
       China Sep 18.78 32.5 12.75 50 0.03 -2 16.01
Oct 18.25 31.5 13 50 0.03 -2 14.72
       EU-27  9/ Sep 0.47 1.38 0.84 0.93 1.28 0.05 0.43
Oct 0.47 1.33 0.85 0.93 1.23 0.05 0.43
       Turkey Sep 1.83 2.3 3.4 6 0.15 -0.08 1.46
Oct 1.93 2.4 3.2 6 0.15 -0.08 1.46
       Pakistan Sep 2.7 9.3 1.8 11 0.3 0.03 2.47
Oct 2.73 9.3 1.8 11 0.3 0.03 2.51
       Indonesia Sep 0.36 0.03 2.13 2.1 0.02 0.05 0.35
Oct 0.36 0.03 2.13 2.1 0.02 0.05 0.35
       Thailand Sep 0.3 3/ 1.75 1.7 0.01 0.03 0.32
Oct 0.3 3/ 1.75 1.7 0.01 0.03 0.32
       Bangladesh Sep 0.74 0.05 4.15 4.2 0 0.01 0.73
Oct 0.74 0.05 4.15 4.2 0 0.01 0.73
       Vietnam Sep 0.38 0.02 1.7 1.75 0 0 0.35
Oct 0.38 0.02 1.7 1.75 0 0 0.35
                 
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors.       2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks.  3/ Less than 5,000 bales.  4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed.  5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.  6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.  7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.

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