China’s imports for 2015/16 are forecast to fall for the fifth consecutive year to 5.75 million bales. This brings forecast imports below 2008/09 levels, the last year before ChinaΆs aggressive reserve accumulation policy. India and Australia were the prime beneficiaries of rising imports through 2011/12.
India and Australia maintained robust market shares in 2013/14 as ChinaΆs imports began to fall, but saw their exports to China drop sharply in 2014/15, India due to quality and price considerations and Australia due to reduced supplies. Although total Chinese imports fell by almost half last year, U.S. exports to China fell only marginally, leading to strong growth in U.S. market share. It remains to be seen if U.S. market share can continue to increase enough to maintain U.S. export volume to an even smaller market in 2015/16.
Global import demand in 2015/16 is expected to decline as the fall in import demand by China more than offsets growing import demand in the rest of the world. With 2015/16 beginning stocks outside of China at record levels, this suggests that exporting countries will need to compete aggressively in alternative markets such as Vietnam and Bangladesh in order to avoid further accumulation of stocks.
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