The forecast for Pakistan’s imports is raised to 2.0 million bales, its highest level in the last 8 years. Reports of poor crop conditions in Pakistan caused pessimism regarding crop size among many observers over the last several weeks, pessimism which has been confirmed by falling deliveries of seed cotton to gins.
Pakistan was widely expected to see higher imports of raw cotton despite a slightly higher import duty, especially as duties on yarn imports were raised substantially. However, recent reports on cotton shipments from India to Pakistan (at least 600,000 170-kg Indian bales in November alone) indicate that PakistanΆs import demand may be substantially larger and may impact global markets sooner than previously anticipated.
Outside of Pakistan, the continuing shift of spinning capacity from cotton-producing China to more import-dependent countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh has also raised the forecast for global trade. Beyond India, stronger recent demand will benefit Brazil and various West African suppliers especially due to their competitive pricing and relatively large available supplies.
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