Weak demand from China has proven to be a drag on many exporters’ shipments thus far in 2015/16. This is most notable in Australia, which has shipped nearly two-thirds of its exports to China over the previous four seasons.
Since the harvest started for the 2015 crop, AustraliaΆs exports as a share of the crop are at a 10-year low, largely on very weak import demand from China. Similarly, shipments to nearly all other major markets are also down. In order to meet the current forecast, AustraliaΆs export pace during its typical out-of-market months from December to April will need to be well above levels established in recent years.
In contrast, the United States has thus far in 2015/16 managed to offset lower shipments to China with higher shipments to alternative markets in Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand, even as outstanding sales remain low, reflecting hand-to-mouth buying by major importers.
Meanwhile, recent reports from Brazil and Turkmenistan indicate robust sales. Competitively-priced, quality varieties remain in demand, especially for export to destinations where mill use remains relatively strong, notably Vietnam and Turkey.
